politicalscienceВестник РГГУ. Серия “Политология. История. Международные отношения.”RSUH/RGGU Bulletin Series "Political Science. History. International Relations"2073-6339Издательский центр Российского государственного гуманитарного университета10.28995/2073-6339-2022-3-10-27politicalscience-415Research ArticleТЕОРИЯ И МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ ПОЛИТИЧЕСКОЙ НАУКИTHEORY AND METHODOLOGY OF POLITICAL SCIENCEИностранное вмешательство в национальные выборы в цифровую эпоху: постановка проблемы и перспективы исследованийForeign electoral interference in the digital age. Statement of the issue and research perspectivesЕвстифеевР. В.EvstifeevR. V.

Роман В. Евстифеев, доктор политических наук

Москва

117418

Нахимовский проспект, д. 51/21

Москва

Roman V. Evstifeev, Dr. of Sci. (Political Science)

117418

bld. 51/21, Nahimovsky Av.

Moscow

roman_66@list.ruИнститут научной информации по общественным наукам РАНРоссияInstitute of Scientific Information for Social Sciences of the Russian Academy of Sciences (INION RAN)Russian Federation202219102022031027Copyright © Евстифеев Р.В., 20222022Евстифеев Р.В.Evstifeev R.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://politicalscience.rsuh.ru/jour/article/view/415

   В статье рассматриваются научные подходы к изучению иностранного вмешательства в национальные выборы, которое оказывает воздействие на внутреннюю и внешнюю политику государств, деформируя систему международных отношений. На основе анализа современной литературы сделан вывод о том, что, несмотря на распространенность указанного явления, научное знание существенно запаздывает в его осмыслении и пока не может предложить обществу и политикам полноценной научной картины происходящего. Автор приходит к заключению, что в цифровую эпоху вмешательство в выборы будет приобретать все более выраженный дистанционный характер, данные о выборах станут все более уязвимыми для кибератак. Эффективности иностранного вмешательства будет способствовать переход к использованию персонализированных и индивидуализированных инструментов, а также снижение качества и достоверности информации в новых источниках, приходящих на смену традиционным СМИ. Ответом на эти вызовы со стороны политической науки могла бы стать новая исследовательская повестка, основные направления которой определены в данной статье и реализация которой могла бы снизить негативный эффект от иностранного вмешательства в выборы.

   The article considers scientific approaches to the study of foreign interference in national elections, which affects the internal and foreign policy of states, distorting the system of international relations. Based on the analysis of modern scientific literature the conclusion is made that despite the prevalence of foreign interference in elections, scientific knowledge is significantly delayed and cannot yet give the society and politicians a full scientific picture of what is happening. It is concluded that in the digital age, foreign electoral interference will become increasingly remote, election data will become increasingly vulnerable to cyberattacks, the effectiveness of foreign interference will be facilitated by the shift to personalized and individualized tools, and the declining quality and veracity of information in new sources replacing traditional media. The response to these challenges from political science could be a new research agenda, the directions of which are defined in the article, and the implementation of which could reduce the negative effect of foreign electoral interference. 

выборысуверенитетиностранное вмешательствопротиводействие иностранному вмешательствуelectionssovereigntyforeign interferencecountering foreign interferenceReferencesГрачев М. Н. Концепт «разрушения правды» в условиях цифрового общества (аналитический обзор) / М. Н. Грачев, Р. В. Евстифеев // Контуры глобальных трансформаций: политика, экономика, право. – 2020. – Т. 13. – № 2. – С. 229–248.Barrett, D. (2019), “Congress, the CIA and Guatemala, 1954”, CIA Library, vol. 44, no. 5, available at: https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/studies-in-intelligence/archives/vol-44-no-5/congress-the-cia-and-guatemala-1954/ (Accessed 5 May 2022).Гришин Н. В. Политика государств в отношении международного наблюдения за выборами / Н. В. Гришин // Политическая экспертиза: ПОЛИТЭКС. – Т. 17. – 2021. – C. 150–162.Beinart, P. (2018), “The US needs to own up to its long history of election med-dling”, The Atlantic, July 22, available at: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/07/the-us-has-a-long-history-of-election-meddling/565538/( Accessed 5 May 2022).Евстифеев Р. В. От «спорных выборов» к глобальной эрозии демократии: ограничения международного влияния на политические выборы / Р. В. Евстифеев // Каспийский регион: политика, экономика, культура. – 2020. – № 3 (64). – С. 99–103.Bílek, J. (2021), “Linkage to the West and electoral manipulation”, Political Studies Review, vol. 2, no. 19, pp. 262–273.Barrett D. Congress, the CIA and Guatemala, 1954 // CIA Library. Vol. 44. No. 5. 2019. URL: https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/studies-in-intelligence/archives/vol-44-no-5/congress-the-cia-and-guatemala-1954/ (дата обращения 5 мая 2022).Bush, S. (2015), The taming of democracy assistance. Why democracy promotion does not confront dictators, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, USA.Beinart P. The US needs to own up to its long history of election meddling // The Atlantic. 2018. July 22. URL: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/07/the-us-has-a-long-history-of-election-meddling/565538/ (дата обращения 5 мая 2022).Carson, A. (2018), Secret wars. Covert conflict in international politics, Princeton University Press, Princeton, USA.Bílek J. Linkage to the West and electoral manipulation // Political Studies Review. 2021. No. 19 (2). P. 262–273.Corstange, D. and Marinov, N. (2012), “Taking sides in other people’s elections. The polarizing effect of foreign intervention”, American Journal of Political Science, vol. 56, no. 3, pp. 655–670.Bush S. The taming of democracy assistance. Why democracy promotion does not confront dictators. Cambridge: Cambridge Univ. Press, 2015. 288 p.Daugherty, W. J. (2004), Executive secrets. Covert action and the presidency, University Press of Kentucky, Lexington, USA.Carson A. Secret wars. Covert conflict in international politics. Princeton: Princeton Univ. Press, 2018. 325 p.Downes, A. and Monten, J. (2013), “Forced to be free? Why foreign imposed regime change rarely leads to democratization”, International Security, vol. 4, no. 37, pp. 90–131.Corstange D., Marinov N. Taking sides in other people’s elections. The polarizing effect of foreign intervention // American Journal of Political Science. 2012. Vol. 56. No. 3. P. 655–670.Evstifeev, R. V. (2020), “From ‘contentious elections” to global erosion of democracy. Limitations of international influence on political elections”, Kaspijskij region: politika, ekonomika, kul’tura, vol. 64, no. 3, pp. 99–103.Daugherty W. J. Executive secrets. Covert action and the presidency. Lexington: Univ. Press of Kentucky, 2004. 298 p.Grachev, M. N. and Evstifeev, R.V. (2020), “The concept of the ‘truth decay’ in a digital society (an analytical review)”, Kontury global’nyh transformacij: politika, ekonomika, parvo, vol.13, no. 2. pp. 229–248.Downes A., Monten J. Forced to be free? Why foreign imposed regime change rarely leads to Democratization // International Security. 2013. No. 37 (4). P. 90–131.Grishin, N.V. (2021), “Policies of states towards international election observation”, Politicheskaya ekspertiza: POLITEKS, vol. 17, pp. 150–162.Gustafson K. Hostile intent. U.S covert operations in Chile, 1964 –1974. Washington, DC: Potomac Books, 2007. 288 p,Gustafson, K. (2007), Hostile intent. U.S covert operations in Chile, 1964–1974, Potomac Books, Washington, DC, USA.Haslam J. The Nixon administration and the death of Allende’s Chile. A case of assisted suicide. N. Y.: Verso, 2005. 288 p.Haslam, J. (2005), The Nixon administration and the death of Allende’s Chile. A case of assisted suicide, Verso, New York, USA.Defending democracies. Combating foreign election interference in a digital age / Ed. by D. Hollis, J. Ohlin. N.Y: Oxford Univ. Press, 2021. 399 p.Hollis, D. and Ohlin, J. (2021), Defending democracies. Combating foreign election interference in a digital age, Oxford University Press, N.Y., USA.Kreps S. Coalitions of сonvenience. United States military interventions after the Cold War. Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press, 2011. 223 p.Kreps, S. (2011), Coalitions of convenience. United States military interventions after the Cold War, Oxford University Press, Oxford, New York, USA.Lee D. The right of sovereignty. Jean Bodin on the sovereign state and the law of nations. Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press, 2021. 320 p.Lee, D. (2021), The right of sovereignty. Jean Bodin on the sovereign state and the law of nations, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK.Levin D. Partisan electoral interventions by the great powers. Introducing the PEIG dataset // Conflict Management and Peace Science. 2019. № 36 (1). P. 88–106.Levin, D. (2019), “Partisan electoral interventions by the great powers. Introducing the PEIG dataset”, Conflict Management and Peace Science, vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 88 – 106.Levin D. Meddling in the ballot box. The causes and effects of partisan electoral interventions. N.Y.: Oxford Univ. Press, 2020. 316 p.Levin, D. (2020), Meddling in the ballot box. The causes and effects of partisan electoral interventions, Oxford University Press, New York, USA.Lührmann A. United Nations electoral assistance. More than a fig leaf? // International Political Science Review. 2019. Vol. 40 (2). P. 181–196.Lührmann, A. (2019), “United Nations electoral assistance. More than a fig leaf?”, International Political Science Review, vol. 40, no. 2, pp. 181– 196.McQuade J. How the CIA toppled Iranian democracy // The conversation. 2017. July 28. URL: https://theconversation.com/how-the-cia-toppled-iranian-democracy-81628 (дата обращения 5 мая 2022).McQuade, J. (2017) “How the CIA toppled Iranian democracy”, The Conversation, July 28, available at: https://theconversation.com/how-the-cia-toppled-iranian-democracy-81628 (Accessed 5 May 2022).Mohan V., Wall A. Foreign electoral interference. Past, present, and future // Georgetown Journal of International Affairs. 2019. Vol. 20. P. 110–119Mohan, V. and Wall, A. (2019), “Foreign electoral interference. Past, present, and future”, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, vol. 20, pp. 110–119.Ördén H., Pamment J. What is so foreign about foreign influence operations. Washington: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2021. 23 p.Ördén, H. and Pamment, J. (2021), What is so foreign about foreign influence operations, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, USA.O’Rourke L. Covert regime change. America’s secret Cold War. Ithaca: Cornell Univ. Press, 2018. 312 p.O’Rourke, L. (2018), Covert regime change. America’s secret Cold War, Cornell University Press, Ithaca, USA.Poznansky M. Stasis or decay? Reconciling covert war and the democratic peace // International Studies Quarterly. 2015. № 59 (4). P. 629–829.Poznansky, M. (2015), “Stasis or decay? Reconciling covert war and the democratic peace”, International Studies Quarterly, vol. 59, no. 4, pp. 629–829.Prados J. Safe for democracy. The secret wars of the CIA. Chicago: Dee, 2006. 752 p.Prados, J. (2006), Safe for democracy. The secret wars of the CIA, Dee, Chicago, USA.Rudolph J., Morley T. Covert money. Financial loopholes exploited by authoritarians to fund political interference in democracies. Washington: The Alliance for Securing Democracy, 2020. 105 p.Rudolph, J. and Morley, T. (2020) Covert money. Financial loopholes exploited by authoritarians to fund political interference in democracies, The Alliance for Securing Democracy, Washington, USA.Saunders E. Leaders at war. How presidents shape military interventions. Ithaca: Cornell Univ. Press, 2012. 312 p.Saunders, E. (2012), Leaders at war. How presidents shape military interventions, Cornell University Press, Ithaca, USA.Shulman S., Bloom S. The legitimacy of foreign intervention in elections. The Ukrainian response // Review of International Studies. 2012. No. 38. P. 445–471.Shulman, S. and Bloom, S. (2012), “The legitimacy of foreign intervention in elections. The Ukrainian response”, Review of International Studies, no. 38, pp. 445–471.Tomz M., Weeks J. Public opinion and foreign electoral intervention // American Political Science Review. 2020. Vol. 114, issue 3. P. 1–18.Tomz, M. and Weeks, J. (2020), “Public opinion and foreign electoral intervention”, American Political Science Review, vol. 114, issue 3, pp. 1–18.Tseng-Putterman M. A century of US intervention created the immigration crisis // Medium. 2018. June 20. URL: https://medium.com/s/story/timeline-us-intervention-central-america-a9bea9ebc148 (дата обращения 5 мая 2022).Tseng-Putterman, M. (2018), “A century of US intervention created the immigration crisis”, Medium, June 20, available at: https://medium.com/s/story/timeline-us-intervention-central-america-a9bea9ebc148 (Accessed 5 May 2022).Usdin S. When a foreign government intervened in a US election – to re-elect FDR // Politico. 2017. January 16. URL: https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/when-a-foreign-government-interfered-in-a-us-electionto-reelect-fdr-214634 (дата обращения 5 мая 2022).Usdin, S. (2017), “When a foreign government intervened in a US election – to re-elect FDR”, Politico, January 16, available at: https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/when-a-foreign-government-interfered-in-a-us-electionto-reelect-fdr-214634 (Accessed 5 May 2022).Willard-Foster 2019 – Willard-Foster M. Toppling foreign governments. The logic of regime change. Philadelphia: Univ. of Pennsylvania Press, 2019. 344 p.Willard-Foster, M. (2019), Toppling foreign governments. The logic of regime change, University of Pennsylvania Press, Philadelphia, USA.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.