Foreign policy decision making in the United States on the example of the trade war with China (2018–2020)

Abstract

The article studies the development and implementation process of the US trade strategy towards the People’s Republic of China in 2018–2020. The author tries not only to describe the state of things but thoroughly analyze the peculiarities of the decision-making procedure in trade during Donald Trump’s tenure.

The President was a hardliner and thought that maximum pressure would force Beijing to make concessions. We can discern two aspects which have decreased that strategy’s efficiency. First, Trump’s persona has destabilized the diplomatic process. Inconsistency and ever-changing rhetoric have deepened the crisis in the Sino-American relations. Second, right from the beginning, the president did not understand the way the decision-making process worked. The formation of the team in charge of trade took almost a year. In the end, a special group was set up; it managed to elaborate a plan of coordination with the PRC and also secure the Congress support. However, it was unable to establish a regular communication system with the president, who even during the negotiations was openly contradicting the official position of the US delegation.

Thus, despite a relatively efficient decision-making system (from a structural standpoint: advisors, cooperation with the Congressional Committees), Trump turned out to be inept to develop a long-term strategy to regulate the commercial relations between the USA and the PRC.