The future of the American deterrence strategy in the context of the formation of a polycentric world order

The article analyzes the prospects for the development of the American deterrence strategy in a multipolar world order characterized by a new round of confrontation between the United States and its geopolitical rivals. The author examines the genesis of the American deterrence strategy during the Cold War and makes an attempt to highlight the most likely scenario for the development of the deterrence strategy in the future. The article focuses on the so-called integrated deterrence, which is the integration of its nuclear and non-nuclear elements into a single strategy within the framework of the US Armed Forces commands, which are increasingly facing challenges and threats from Washington’s rivals employing the prospect of using nuclear weapons to advance their regional goals.

1. Anderson, J.R. and McCue, J.D. (2021), “Deterring, countering, and defeating conventional-nuclear integration”, Strategic Studies Quarterly, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 28–60.

2. Arbatov, A.A. (2021), Strategicheskaya stabil’nost – oruzhie i diplomatiya [Strategic stability: weapons and diplomacy], Ves’ mir, Moscow, Russia.

3. Batyuk, V.I. (2018), Kholodnaya voina mezhdu SShA i SSSR (1945–1991): Ocherki istorii [The Cold War between the USA and the USSR (1945–1991). Essays on history], Ves’ mir, Moscow, Russia.

4. Bubnova, N.I. (2025), “U.S. nuclear policy in comparative perspective”, Comparative Politics Russia, vol. 16, no. 2, available at: https://www.sravpol.ru/jour/article/view/1833/993 (Accessed 2 Feb. 2026).

5. Burenok, V.M. and Achasov, O.B. (2007), “Non-nuclear deterrence”, Voennaya mysl’, no. 12, pp. 12–15.

6. Jervis, R. (2022), Vospriyatie i nevernoe vospriyatie v mezhdunarodnoi politike [Perception and misperception in international politics], Tsentr analiza strategii i tekhnologii, Moscow, Russia.

7. Kahn, H. (2010), On escalation. Metaphors and scenarios, Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick, Canada.

8. Karaganov, D.V., Trenin, S.I. and Avakyants, S.I. (2024), Ot sderzhivaniya k ustrasheniyu [From deterrence to intimidation], Molodaya Gvardiya, Moscow, Russia.

9. Kissinger, H. (1959), Yadernoe oruzhie i vneshnyaya politika [Nuclear weapons and foreign policy], Izdatel’stvo inostrannoi literatury, Moscow, USSR. (Dlya nauchnykh i voennykh bibliotek)

10. Kissinger, H. (1997), Diplomatiya [Diplomacy], Ladomir, TOO “VRS”, Moscow, Russia.

11. Mearsheimer, J.J. (1983), Conventional deterrence, Cornell University Press, Ithaca, UK.

12. Peters, R., Anderson, J. and Menke, H. (2018), “Deterrence in the 21st century: Integrating nuclear and conventional force”, Strategic Studies Quarterly, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 15–43.

13. Snyder, G. (2015), Deterrence and defense, Princeton, Princeton University Press, USA.

14. Schelling, T. (1966), Arms and influence, Yale University Press, New Haven, USA.

15. Schelling, T. (2016), Strategiya konflikta [Strategy of conflict], IRISEN, Sotsium, Moscow, Russia.